The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.11.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0564
• Prev. Close: 1.0556
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

According to experts, the ECB will have to further reduce borrowing costs in order to curb the persistent economic gloom in Europe. German inflation rose less than expected and the harmonized rate remained steady at 2.4%, contrary to expectations of an increase to 2.6%. Spanish inflation also rose to 2.4%, matching estimates. Today, investors’ attention is focused on Eurozone inflation data. Accelerating inflation may give additional support to the European currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0510, 1.0470, 1.0449, 1.0233
• Resistance levels: 1.0568, 1.0609, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish, but close to change. Currently, the euro is retesting the resistance zone above 1.0568, but the reaction of sellers is weak, which increases the probability of further growth to 1.0609. Therefore, intraday you can look for buying from the trend line or moving averages. A breakdown of the trend line on impulse candles will cancel this scenario and trigger a sell-off to 1.0533 or 1.0510.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0609 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2674
• Prev. Close: 1.2688
• % chg. over the last day: +0.11 %

The British pound sterling is the second highest-yielding currency in the G7 in 2024. The stubborn service inflation is making the Bank of England (BoE) hawkish and UK rates are the highest in the G7. The Bank of England is relatively hawkish for the reason that inflation remains a concern, and service sector inflation is a particular impediment to accelerating the rate cut cycle. 

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2633, 1.2567, 1.2487
• Resistance levels: 1.2726, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The price seeks to test the liquidity above 1.2726, where fixation of previously opened purchases is possible. The MACD divergence is also pointing to an approaching correction. Note that the pound sterling has already hit a weekly high, while the euro has not yet. This correlation divergence also increases the probability of a price decline. Selling can be looked for from 1.2726, subject to sellers’ reactions. There are no optimal entry points for buying.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2526 and consolidates below it, the downtrend is likely to resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 150.99
• Prev. Close: 151.50
• % chg. over the last day: +0.33 %

On Friday, the Japanese yen gained 1% to around 150 per dollar, reaching a six-week high, as investors reacted to data that Tokyo’s inflation rate rose above 2% in November. The inflation data reinforced expectations of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December. Markets now place the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next month at around 60%, up from 50% a week ago. Tokyo’s inflation data is often seen as a leading indicator for national price trends.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 149.75
• Resistance levels: 153.23, 154.71, 155.25, 155.87, 156.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is a downtrend. The yen has reached the support level of 149.75, where the buyers showed a reaction. Some fixation of previously opened sales is very likely here. The MACD divergence also indicates a probable correction. Under such market conditions, buying can be sought from 149.75, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level at 154.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2637
• Prev. Close: 2637
• % chg. over the last day: 0.0 %

Recent data confirming strong US GDP growth in the third quarter, strong personal income and spending in October, as well as continued low jobless claims, encourage bets that the Fed will be cautious next year. Experts are plotting a decline of just 50 bps for 2025, which is significantly lower than previous estimates. This is more of a negative for gold, as the US dollar will strengthen on the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2649, 2618, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Resistance levels: 2658, 2704, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Today, at the Asian session, the price broke through the narrowing triangle and rushed to test the liquidity above 2658. If the sellers react here, the price may drop sharply to 2649. Then, everything will depend on the reaction of buyers to the level. If buyers react to the test of 2649, the price will return to growth. This will be a buying signal. If the price is fixed below 2649, it may trigger a strong sell-off wave to 2618.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2618, the downtrend will likely resume.