The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.12.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0568
• Prev. Close: 1.0498
• % chg. over the last day: -0.67 %

Weak Eurozone growth, slowing services inflation, and concerns over US tariffs exacerbated the Euro’s problems, leading to a 3% drop in November, the worst monthly performance in more than a year. Meanwhile, dovish comments from ECB spokesman Martins Kazaks have fueled speculation of further rate cuts, and there is a growing possibility that the rate will be cut by 50 basis points in December, although a 25 basis point cut remains the main scenario.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0470, 1.0449, 1.0233
• Resistance levels: 1.0515, 1.0539, 1.0568, 1.0609, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, sellers intercepted the initiative intraday and broke through the nearest support levels. There is a high probability of a price drop to 1.0425. For sell deals, we can consider the levels of 1.0515 or 1.0539, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0609 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2725
• Prev. Close: 1.2654
• % chg. over the last day: -0.56 %

In the UK, investors’ attention turned to the December 5 Bank of England Board of Directors meeting, which could provide further insight into inflation expectations and the Central Bank’s monetary policy course. The PMI survey showed that UK manufacturing activity contracted more sharply in November than previously estimated. The pound rose against the euro amid concerns about political instability in France.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2633, 1.2567, 1.2487
• Resistance levels: 1.2671, 1.2691, 1.2726, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023.

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the sellers managed to bring the price down below 1.2633, where after a liquidity test the price rebounded a bit. However, the intraday bias remains with the sellers. With these market conditions, sell trades are best sought from 1.2671 or 1.2691, subject to sellers’ reactions. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2526 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.63
• Prev. Close: 149.59
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03 %

The Japanese yen approached the 150 per dollar mark on Tuesday, weakened by the general strengthening of the dollar, but remained near the highest level in the last seven weeks amid expectations that the Bank of Japan may soon raise interest rates again. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said over the weekend that further rate hikes are “not far off” as economic data is in line with expectations.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 149.67, 147.34
• Resistance levels: 150.76, 151.96, 153.23, 154.71, 155.25

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is a downtrend. The narrowing channel with a divergence on the MACD indicates a reversal pattern. A breakout of the upper channel boundary can be used as a buy signal but with short targets. Selling can be considered from 150.76, subject to sellers’ reaction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level at 154.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2650
• Prev. Close: 2639
• % chg. over the last day: -0.42 %

Gold stabilized around the $2,640 per ounce mark on Tuesday as investors await important US jobs data and Federal Reserve speeches that could clarify the outlook for the Central Bank’s monetary policy. On Monday, Fed chief Christopher Waller said he was inclined to support another rate cut this month, while Fed President John Williams suggested a gradual shift to a more neutral policy. This has prompted investors to significantly raise expectations of another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s December 17–18 meeting, with markets now estimating a 75% probability of such a move.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2618, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Resistance levels: 2652, 2666, 2704, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish but close to change. Volatility on gold is declining as markets await key labor market data on Friday. A bearish bias is observed intraday. With these market conditions, sell trades can be considered from 2652 or 2666, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2618, the downtrend will likely resume.