The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.12.09

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0586
• Prev. Close: 1.0567
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18 %

The latest economic surveys suggest that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates faster than previously estimated to revive an economy facing weakening growth and inflation. Respondents predict a quarter-point rate cut next week and at each meeting through June, bringing the deposit rate to 2%. Previously, they believed this level would not be reached until a year from now. Given that estimates for economic growth and consumer prices will be cut, most analysts expect borrowing costs to be low enough to stimulate growth by the end of 2025.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0504, 1.0449, 1.0233
• Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0609, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. On Friday, the price tested the priority change level, but failed to consolidate above. After the liquidity test, the price declined sharply to the 1.0550 support level. Buyers here tried to buy back the price but were unsuccessful. At the Asian session today, this level was broken. Under such market conditions, we can look for sell deals from 1.0550 to 1.0504. If the price holds above 1.0550, then we should expect a rise to 1.0588.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0609 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2752
• Prev. Close: 1.2743
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

Swati Dhingra of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee warned that high interest rates put too much pressure on the economy, curbing consumer spending and business investment. Dhingra is the most dovish MPC representative to vote for a rate cut since February. The Bank of England cut borrowing costs by a quarter point first in August to 5% and then last month to 4.75% as inflation moved closer to its 2% target. Dhingra said she favors “gradual” rate cuts and expects the rate to settle at between 2.5% and 3.5%, which she sees as a “neutral rate” that is neither restrictive nor stimulative.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2686, 1.2633, 1.2567, 1.2487
• Resistance levels: 1.2770, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. On Friday, the price tested liquidity above 1.2770, followed by a sharp downward impulse. There was a liquidity grab above and now this liquidity will be distributed. It is best to consider the moving averages or 1.2770 level for sell deals but with confirmation. The nearest level for buying is 1.2686.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2526 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 150.05
• Prev. Close: 150.03
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01 %

The Japanese yen stabilized around 150 per dollar on Friday after data showed that inflation-adjusted real wages in Japan were unchanged year-on-year in October. The data supports expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month, although market sentiment remains divided over the timing of the next move, with opinions split between December and January.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 149.42, 149.67, 147.34
• Resistance levels: 150.76, 151.96, 153.23, 154.71, 155.25

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is a downtrend. On Friday, the price tested the liquidity below 149.64 before consolidating above the level. Grabbed liquidity is likely to be distributed above 150.76, so intraday today, you can look for buying. As a result, a flat accumulation with the boundaries of 149.42–150.76 is forming.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 151.95, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2632
• Prev. Close: 2632
• % chg. over the last day: 0.0 %

Gold traded above $2630/oz on Monday, driven by its appeal as a safe-haven currency amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as renewed gold purchases by China. Rebel forces in Syria toppled President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday, marking the end of the Assad family’s 50-year rule and raising fears of a new wave of instability in the region. In addition, China’s Central Bank resumed buying gold for its reserves in November after a six-month pause, which provided additional support for the yellow metal.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2618, 2606, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Resistance levels: 2643, 2655, 2667, 2704, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but close to change. On Friday, buyers sharply bought the price from the priority change level, after which the price reached the resistance level of 2643. Here sellers have taken the initiative, which along with the liquidity grab above opens up selling opportunities. A breakout of 2643 will open the price to 2657, where selling could also be considered after a test of liquidity above.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2618, the downtrend will likely resume.