The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.12.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0554
• Prev. Close: 1.0527
• % chg. over the last day: -0.26 %

The euro is holding near $1.05, remaining only slightly above the two-year lows reached in late November, as traders await the ECB’s monetary policy decision. The ECB is expected to cut its key deposit rate for the fourth time on Thursday by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3%. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at Thursday’s meeting to 100% and a 50 bps rate cut at the same meeting to 6%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0524, 1.0504, 1.0449, 1.0233
• Resistance levels: 1.0565, 1.0615, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price tested the liquidity below 1.0504, where the buyers took the initiative. Currently, the grabbed liquidity should be distributed higher. Intraday, we should consider buying from 1.0524 or 1.0504. The profit target is 1.0565. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0609 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2746
• Prev. Close: 1.2771
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20 %

The British pound is trading near 1.28 per dollar. Investors are awaiting key economic data and central bank meetings. UK data, to be released Friday, is expected to show economic recovery and a manufacturing rebound in October. The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its December 19 meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2751, 1.2686, 1.2633, 1.2567, 1.2487
• Resistance levels: 1.2783, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative after the liquidity test below 1.2751. Currently, the price is trading between the 1.2751 and 1.2783 levels, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. If the price consolidates below 1.2752, we should switch to selling with a target of 1.2686.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2526 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 151.18
• Prev. Close: 151.96
• % chg. over the last day: +0.52 %

The yen on Tuesday extended Monday’s losses and fell to a one-week low against the dollar. The yen was pressured for a second session on Tuesday by Monday’s negative aftermath when Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba said Japan has yet to shake off deflation, easing speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at a policy meeting on December 19.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.41, 150.74, 149.42, 149.67, 147.34
• Resistance levels: 151.96, 153.23, 154.71, 155.25

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is a downtrend, but it is close to changing. Yesterday, the price reached the 151.96 priority change level, but sellers were able to protect their positions by taking the initiative here. The price corrected to the support at 151.41. This level is intermediate and usually gives only a minor bounce. In addition, MACD divergence indicates a corrective movement. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for sell deals from 151.96 with a target of 150.74. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 151.95, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2658
• Prev. Close: 2692
• % chg. over the last day: +1.28 %

Precious metals rose moderately on Tuesday, with gold hitting a 2-week high. Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East are boosting demand for precious metals amid the collapse of the Syrian government. Gold is also getting support from increased demand from China after the People’s Bank of China said it bought 160,000 ounces of gold last month, its first purchase since April.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2669, 2662, 2653, 2627, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Resistance levels: 2688, 2704, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The gold price reached an important resistance level of 2704 before impulsively closing below 2688, which could be a prerequisite for liquidity grabbing and distribution below. As long as the price holds above 2688, there is a high probability of continued upside. A price fixing below 2688 could trigger a sell-off to 2669 and below.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2618, the downtrend will likely resume.