Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.12.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0493
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0468
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.24 %

The euro fell below $1.05, approaching the two-year lows of late November at $1.04 after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut benchmark interest rates as expected and signaled further rate cuts. All three key rates were cut by 25 bps, marking the fourth cut in the current cycle, in line with continued evidence of declining core inflation in the currency bloc.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0460, 1.0442
• Level resistance: 1.0481, 1.0537, 1.0565, 1.0615, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price consolidated below 1.0502, which provoked a sell-off to 1.0460. Below this level is the liquidity, and the price reaction to this liquidity will show where the distribution will go next. Considering the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a corrective rebound of 1.0481. Selling can be considered from 1.0481 or after price consolidation below 1.0460.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0609 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2747
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2679
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.53 %

The GfK UK Consumer Confidence Index rose by 1 point to negative 17 in December 2024, marking the second consecutive month of improvement. However, confidence remains low, reflecting continued concerns about the economic outlook. UK GDP data will also be released today. A modest growth of 0.1% mom is expected. If the data comes in worse than estimate, the British could come under selling pressure.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2629, 1.2567, 1.2487
• Level resistance: 1.2678, 1.2717, 1.2748, 1.2781, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982.

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish but close to the change. The price is approaching the priority change level, and there are no preconditions for growth now. A price fixation below 1.2628 may trigger a sell-off to 1.2590 and below. Buy deals can be considered if buyers react to a liquidity test below 1.2629. There are no optimal entry points for selling now, as prices have deviated strongly from the moving averages.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2526 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 152.40
• Tutup sebelumnya: 152.62
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.14 %

The Japanese yen fell to 153 per dollar on Friday, the lowest level in over two weeks, amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan may hold off on an interest rate hike at next week’s meeting. Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike this month fell to 23% after reports that the Central Bank sees “negligible costs” in delaying further tightening. BOJ officials have said they want to see more evidence of wage growth before proceeding with additional policy adjustments. 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 152.45, 151.94, 151.41, 151.00, 150.74
• Level resistance: 153.23, 154.71, 155.25

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair changed to an uptrend. After testing liquidity below 151.94, the price resumed growth and seeks to distribute new liquidity above 152.23. Intraday priority is for buyers. Under these market conditions, intraday buying can be sought from 152.46 or from the moving averages with a target of 153.23. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Skenario alternatif:

If the price breaks and consolidates below the 151.00 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2717
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2680
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.38 %

Gold climbed above the $2,680 mark on Friday, recovering slightly after a more than 1.3% drop in the previous session, as investors continued to assess the latest economic data. The US factory output prices (PPI) rose more than expected in November, adding to concerns that inflation may remain above the Fed’s target next year. However, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a near two-month high, well above estimates, and underscored the risks of a softening labor market. Meanwhile, dovish measures by other major central banks had little impact on gold prices. The SNB cut rates by 50 bps, the ECB by 25 bps, and the Bank of Canada by 50 bps.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2675, 2669, 2653, 2627, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Level resistance: 2700, 2721, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price is correcting within the uptrend. Yesterday, the price reached Wednesday’s low, but the reaction of buyers here is weak, which, on the background of intraday sellers’ pressure, increases the probability of further decline to 2669. Intraday, you can look for selling to this level, but with short stop losses. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2627, the downtrend will likely resume.